ANDY GRAY gives his big-match verdict on Sunday's Carling Cup final between Manchester United and his old club Aston Villa.
Speaking courtesy of betfairfootball.com,
the Sky expert reckons his heart says Villa but his head suggests United
for
the season's first major piece of silverware.
The next few weeks will determine whether Aston Villa's season will be
judged
as a success or failure. They've done OK in the league and at this stage
of
proceedings they're still in with a chance of finishing fourth. They're
4.4
on Betfair to do so, behind Liverpool (2.6) and Man City (3.7) and just
ahead of Tottenham (5.6) so they'd have to upset the odds if they were
to
find themselves in the Champions League next season for the first time
in
their history.
Click
here for the latest odds.
They're also still in two Cup competitions. A win in either of those and
the
season would be considered a success but if they end the season
trophyless
and fail to qualify for the Champions League, the 2009/10 campaign will
be
considered a failure and there will be an inquest as to where things
went
wrong.
Who, then, have so far had good and bad seasons on the pitch?
Richard Dunne and James Collins have been superb this season. It's
difficult
enough to try and build a centre-back partnership when one of the two is
new
to the club but given they both arrived in the summer, it's even more
remarkable. James Milner has been excellent in his new position in the
middle of the park and Gabriel Agbonlahor's return of 11 league goals is
good for a striker at a club like Villa.
On the downside, Ashley Young has lacked some of the spark we've
expected from
him in a World Cup year when places in South Africa are up for grabs and
Emile Heskey has been a bit of a disappointment too. We know Emile isn't
a
prolific goalscorer but just five goals in all competitions from him is a
poor return for a player of his ability and this may be the summer that
Martin O'Neill looks to the transfer market for a new front man. We know
from his time at Leicester (Heskey himself) and Celtic (Jan Venegoor of
Hesselink) that Martin O'Neill likes to play a big striker alongside a
quick
man, in this case Agbonlahor, but finding a man to fill that role is
easier
said than done. It's a similar story with Arsene Wenger: he knows the
sort
of players he wants but to get one who is available, willing to come to
the
club and fits in with the wage structure is another matter.
Villa's first chance of picking up some silverware this season comes on
Sunday
afternoon. This is a match that holds few certainties but one thing we
can
be sure of is that both teams will line up at full strength. Martin
O'Neill
is desperate for the club to win a trophy to end a 14-year drought
whereas
Sir Alex Ferguson will also be keen to bag some silverware ahead of
further
Champions League commitments and a draining run-in to the league.
COLLINS: Astute acquisition
Villa's side picks itself with the only doubt being who will partner
Agbonlahor upfront but my instinct is that Heskey will get the nod ahead
of
John Carew, despite the Norwegian's two goals from the penalty spot in
their
midweek win over Crystal Palace. For United, I wouldn't be surprised to
see
Gary Neville get a game in what is almost certainly his last season and
I'd
expect Michael Carrick and Darren Fletcher to get recalls after being
rested
against West Ham. The only remaining question is whether Wayne Rooney
will
start up front by himself or be joined by Dimitar Berbatov.
The Claret and Blues have a good record against Fergie's boys this year,
having beaten them at Old Trafford and drawing at Villa Park and they
will
take huge confidence from those results. Better still, no United player
has
put one past Brad Friedel this season with their goal away from home
coming
courtesy of a James Collins og. But that's as far as the good omens go
for
Villa.
Once Sir Alex Ferguson gets his team to cup finals, they tend to make
the most
of them and in players such as Paul Scholes, Darren Fletcher, Gary
Neville
and Wayne Rooney he's got players who have experienced it all before. In
fact, the vast majority of Fergie's starting XI will have played at
least
one major final before. Which is more than you can say for Villa's team.
Stewart Downing has played the UEFA Cup final for Middlesbrough, Heskey
played for Leicester under O'Neill when they lost this competition to
Spurs
in 1999 and Stiliyan Petrov played some big games at Celtic but that's
about
it. As a former player my heart says Villa but my head says United for
this
one. I fancy the Reds to win this 2-1 in normal time.
You just can't keep Rooney out of the headlines at the moment. When he's
not
scoring a bundle of goals for his side, he's being tipped for some major
awards and being touted to be England skipper if Rio Ferdinand isn't fit
to
lead the team out against the USA. That incidentally is 19.0 chance on
Betfair. It would be just like Wayne to score the winner on Sunday
afternoon
but I imagine he'll be prohibitively short odds to net against the
Villans
so in search of better value I'm going to go for James Milner to score
at
anytime at around 6.0. I said I fancied Villa to score and there's no
reason
why the former Newcastle man can't be the player to do so.
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